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Some of the camera company executives we interviewed at CP+ 2023. (Clockwise from top left: Sony, Canon, Nikon, OM Digital Solutions, Sigma, Fujifilm.)

A few weeks ago I attended the CP+ Expo, the camera industry’s annual trade show, in Yokohama, Japan. CP+ is a great place to see the latest and greatest camera products, but we make the yearly pilgrimage to Yokohama for other reasons.

More importantly, CP+ is where we meet with and interview the industry’s top leaders to gain insight into the state of the camera industry and what we may see in the years ahead. So, as we wind up editorial operations here at DPReview, I thought it would be useful to share what the people who make your cameras think about the current status of their (and our) industry and where it’s headed.

What follows are the trends and themes that revealed themselves over a week of formal and informal meetings with senior executives from almost every major camera and lens company, both inside and outside the scope of official interviews.

The camera market may finally be reaching an equilibrium

The camera industry has been on a roller coaster ride for years. The transition from film to digital saw vast numbers of consumers buying digital cameras, and the availability of affordable DSLRs, a/k/a the ‘Rebel bump’, attracted photography enthusiasts in droves. Annual product announcements promised real, measurable improvements in performance and drove rapid upgrade cycles, leading enthusiasts to buy new cameras every couple of years and frequently more often.

Most of the industry leaders I spoke with believe the camera market is reaching a point of equilibrium.

As we’re all aware, the smartphone changed everything. The average consumer left dedicated cameras in the rearview mirror, resulting in a steep industry contraction.

According to camera executives, the good news is that the market has either bottomed out, meaning it will remain relatively stable or will see some growth in certain areas like video.

The market may have finally reached a natural equilibrium point, similar to the film era.

In essence, they suggest that the market may have finally reached a natural equilibrium point, similar to the film era, where a segment of the population will buy dedicated cameras no matter what other market forces are in play. The people in this group are the spiritual successors to those who bought interchangeable lens film cameras before digital was even a thing; they represent the stable customer base the camera companies are looking for.

Video is driving the market

If there’s a single theme virtually every leader in the industry can agree on, it’s that video is a significant growth driver for the market. Video content is everywhere, and the expectation is that video – whether used by TikTok creators or international media brands – is the best hope of driving the market.

Every company is placing a considerable emphasis on attracting hybrid users who shoot both stills and video and, in some cases, only video. We’re going to see camera companies focusing more on video features and capabilities and probably many more products explicitly targeting that audience. It’s why a company like Nikon, which isn’t historically known as a go-to company for video products, put so much emphasis on video features in a camera like the Z9.

Camera companies see video as one of their most significant growth opportunities. Witness how much effort Nikon put into making its Z9 flagship camera a video powerhouse.

In a nutshell, every manufacturer I spoke with said the data tells them that video is where the growth opportunities will be found, and we can expect them to act accordingly.

Everyone is looking to ‘creators’ for growth

Camera companies see video use growing across all categories of users, but there’s one segment they’re all laser-focused on: creators. I couldn’t get through five minutes of conversation without hearing the word ‘creator.’

Camera companies see video use growing across all categories of users, but there’s one segment they’re all laser-focused on: creators.

But what, exactly, is a ‘creator?’ At a basic level, it’s someone who uses a camera to create content for public sharing. But let’s be clear about what the camera companies mean when they talk about targeting ‘creators’: Gen Z and teenagers. I’m not just speculating; they straight up told me that in multiple conversations. Camera companies see this demographic as a critical market for the future, and there’s a land grab going on to attract these users in their formative years to create brand loyalists.

Sony has been the most successful at this so far with the budget end of its ZV series of vlogger-oriented cameras. In some markets, it has launched special programs to promote these cameras in schools and provide student discounts. If you look at the entire ZV line, though, there’s already an upgrade path from starter to full-frame models. Sony hopes that some of these users will eventually graduate to the FX series as their careers grow.

Camera companies want to reach Gen Z and teenage ‘creators’ and are building products designed to connect with this audience.

Sony isn’t alone. A significant portion of Nikon’s booth at CP+ was aimed at creators: it was a colorful, hip area with staff in sweatshirts proclaiming ‘Nikon Creators,’ and it was generally packed. Other companies have similar messaging.

You may think this is very different from the traditional camera market, and you’re right – this group of consumers cares about different things than you do. For example, one executive I spoke with told me that this market isn’t very worried about Raw files, and many don’t know what they are.

You’re not going to get a camera without video

There’s a group of people we can depend on to post a comment under every camera review proclaiming, ‘Just give me a pure camera with no video features!’ While I appreciate where that purist sentiment comes from, I have bad news for you:

You’re not going to get it.

If what I’ve said so far tells you anything, it should be clear that camera manufacturers are putting more resources into video, not less.

If what I’ve said so far tells you anything, it should be clear that camera manufacturers are putting more resources into video, not less; they see video as a growth driver for their individual brands and the industry as a whole. They could make a stripped-down camera without video features, but as my colleague Richard Butler explained in an article, it would probably cost more, not less.

Video is here to stay. You won’t be able to buy cameras without it unless you use a specialized product like a Leica rangefinder. Though you probably won’t save money by doing so.

There are a few niche products, like Leica rangefinders, that don’t include video, and these will probably continue. Still, they will continue to be limited in number and cost a premium.

A focus on creating unique products

A word that came up a lot in my discussions was ‘unique,’ expressing a desire by companies to make unique products. That isn’t rocket science; every company wants unique products to differentiate itself from the competition. But in the context of the camera industry, it means something a little different.

For the past several years, there’s been a scramble by Canon, Nikon and Panasonic to gain a market foothold with their full-frame mirrorless systems. In many cases, the focus was less on producing unique products and more on building out a complete system to broadly appeal to photographers: camera bodies that hit all the important price points, key lenses like 35mm, 50mm, and 85mm primes, and coverage of the popular zoom ranges.

The Sigma 14mm F1.8 Art lens was a unique product that helped grow the market for astrophotography. Now that most mirrorless systems are relatively complete, camera and lens makers plan to release more unique products to help grow market segments.

Now that those systems are more mature, manufacturers told me they want to focus on products, particularly lenses, that are unique to their systems. They wouldn’t share specific product plans (they generally won’t), but Kazuto Yamaki, CEO of Sigma, explained that, if done correctly, unique products don’t just fill a market need – they have the potential to grow the market.

Manufacturers told me they want to focus on products, particularly lenses, that are unique to their systems.

An example of this was Sigma’s 14mm F1.8 prime lens. It quickly became a favorite of astrophotographers, and access to that lens drove people who had never done astrophotography before to try it. In essence, that lens, and the category it created, grew the entire market for wide-field astrophotography. We can probably expect to see more examples of specialty products like this in the future.

Manufacturers don’t see smartphones as competition

This one surprised me. I was sure most manufacturers would express concern about having to compete with smartphones. After all, smartphones were undoubtedly the single most significant factor driving the contraction of the camera market over the past few years. And yet, this wasn’t the case. I was repeatedly told that manufacturers see smartphones as complementary rather than competitive technology.

I don’t know if I buy this, though it may go back to the market equilibrium I discussed earlier. Manufacturers may believe we’ve reached a point where the remaining buyers in the market are enthusiasts and pros who care enough about photography that they’re not a flight risk, who will buy a camera alongside their smartphone. And they may be right.

I expected camera makers to express concerns about competing with smartphones, but I was wrong. Most see smartphones as a complementary rather than competitive technology.

Several manufacturers even indicated that they see smartphones as potentially driving market growth. The ubiquitous presence of smartphones is part of what created the vlogger generation. (Can I take credit for coining the term ‘Gen V?’) Some of these users will naturally seek out higher-quality cameras, and manufacturers are trying to position themselves to connect with them and create brand loyalty when they do. However, I’m not convinced that any of them have figured out how to do it (yet).

Manufacturers may believe we’ve reached a point where the remaining buyers in the market are enthusiasts and pros who care enough about photography that they’re not a flight risk.

If camera companies plan to treat smartphones as a complementary technology, it would be great to see them embrace that philosophy when it comes to, you know, functional integration with those devices. Right now, smartphone support is all over the map. While my experience with Nikon’s SnapBridge is that it works reliably and integrates pretty seamlessly, I’d be happy if my Fujifilm app worked on anything other than the newest models. There’s an entire continuum between the two.

We’re just getting started with AI

If there’s another thing every camera company can agree on, it’s that they want the letters ‘AI’ on their products. Today, AI is used chiefly to deliver improved subject recognition and tracking using algorithms trained by machine learning. AI will get more sophisticated, probably quickly, and a few insiders shared off-the-record examples of what we might see.

Imagine a camera that analyzes what’s in the viewfinder and understands that you’re shooting a sporting event. The camera might evaluate the first few frames in a burst shot to determine if there’s motion blur and, if necessary, increase the shutter speed in real-time to compensate. It might also adjust your burst rate on the fly based on how much the image changes between frames. For example, if you’re shooting a group of sprinters at the starting block, holding down the shutter might result in a very slow burst rate. Within milliseconds of the runners starting to move, the camera could ramp up its burst rate in response.

Many recent cameras include AI technologies to assist with functions like subject recognition and tracking. Industry leaders tell me they expect more AI features to find their way into cameras, and some may even change the way we shoot.

Or, a camera could detect that you’re shooting a portrait, but instead of going to a default portrait program, it might go the extra step of analyzing the setting, the time of day, the weather and even the mood of your subject. If they’re happy, it might adjust the exposure to be bright and cheery; if they look morose, it might tone down the exposure for a moodier image. If you have a flash attached, it could adjust output to help achieve the appropriate look.

Instead of just spotting patterns based on machine learning, future AI will adapt to how you shoot and learn your style. And that’s all in ‘P’ mode.

AI will get more sophisticated, probably quickly.

I can’t promise you’ll see this type of functionality soon, but this is what manufacturers are talking about doing, and it has the potential to change how we use cameras.

The wrap

Cameras have changed to a staggering degree over the past quarter century. When Phil founded DPReview in 1998, most of us couldn’t have predicted some of the camera features we now take for granted. I suspect the same will be true of cameras 25 years from now in 2048, but the observations above should at least give us insight into what we can expect in the next few years.

What trends do you see coming in the camera industry? Let me know in the comments – I always enjoy a good conversation!

Google begins rolling out its ChatGPT rival

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Open up Instagram at any given moment and it probably won’t take long to find crisp pictures of the night sky, a skyline after dark or a dimly lit restaurant. While shots like these used to require advanced cameras, they’re now often possible from the phone you already carry around in your pocket.

Tech companies such as Apple, Samsung and Google are investing resources to improve their night photography options at a time when camera features have increasingly become a key selling point for smartphones that otherwise largely all look and feel the same from one year to the next.

Earlier this month, Google brought a faster version of its Night Sight mode, which uses AI algorithms to lighten or brighten images in dark environments, to more of its Pixel models. Apple’s Night mode, which is available on models as far back as the iPhone 11, was touted as a premier feature on its iPhone 14 lineup last year thanks to its improved camera system.

These tools have come a long way in just the past few years, thanks to significant advancements in artificial intelligence technology as well as image processing that has become sharper, quicker, and more resilient to challenging photography situations. And smartphone makers aren’t done yet.

© Provided by CNN

People watch fireworks during a Fourth of July celebration, in this photo taken using the Google Pixel 5 Night Sight setting. – Brook Joyner/CNN

“People increasingly rely on their smartphones to take photos, record videos, and create content,” said Lian Jye Su, an artificial intelligence analyst at ABI Research. “[This] will only fuel the smartphone companies to up their games in AI-enhanced image and video processing.”

While there has been much focus lately on Silicon Valley’s renewed AI arms race over chatbots, the push to develop more sophisticated AI tools could also help further improve night photography and bring our smartphones closer to being able to see in the dark.

How it works

Samsung’s Night mode feature, which is available on various Galaxy models but optimized for its premium S23 Ultra smartphone, promises to do what would have seemed unthinkable just five to 10 years ago: enable phones to take clearer pictures with little light.

The feature is designed to minimize what’s called “noise,” a term in photography that typically refers to poor lighting conditions, long exposure times, and other elements that can take away from the quality of an image.

The secret to reducing noise, according to the company, is a combination of the S23 Ultra’s adaptive 200M pixel sensor. After the shutter button is pressed, Samsung uses advanced multi-frame processing to combine multiple images into a single picture and AI to automatically adjust the photo as necessary.

“When a user takes a photo in low or dark lighting conditions, the processor helps remove noise through multi-frame processing,” said Joshua Cho, executive vice president of Samsung’s Visual Solution Team. “Instantaneously, the Galaxy S23 Ultra detects the detail that should be kept, and the noise that should be removed.”

For Samsung and other tech companies, AI algorithms are crucial to delivering photos taken in the dark. “The AI training process is based on a large number of images tuned and annotated by experts, and AI learns the parameters to adjust for every photo taken in low-light situations,” Su explained.

For example, algorithms identify the right level of exposure, determine the correct color pallet and gradient under certain lighting conditions, sharpen blurred faces or objects artificially, and then makes those changes. The final result, however, can look quite different from what the person taking the picture saw in real time, in what some might argue is a technical sleight-of-hand trick.

© Provided by CNN

Lights illuminate the Atlanta Botanical Gardens, in this photo taken using Google Pixel 5 Night Sight setting. – Brook Joyner/CNN

Google is also focused on reducing noise in photography. Its AI-powered Night Sight feature captures a burst of longer-exposure frames. It then uses something called HDR+ Bracketing, which creates several photos with different settings. After a picture is taken, the images are combined together to create “sharper photos” even in dark environments “that are still incredibly bright and detailed,” said Alex Schiffhauer, a group product manager at Google.

While effective, there can be a slight but noticeable delay before the image is ready. But Schiffhauer said Google intends to speed up this process more on future Pixel iterations. “We’d love a world in which customers can get the quality of Night Sight without needing to hold still for a few seconds,” Schiffhauer said.

Google also has an astrophotography feature which allows people to take shots of the night sky without needing to tweak the exposure or other settings. The algorithms detect details in the sky and enhances them to stand out, according to the company.

Apple has long been rumored to be working on an astrophotography feature, but some iPhone 14 Pro Max users have successfully been able to capture pictures of the sky through its existing Night Mode tool. When a device detects a low-light environment, Night mode turns on to capture details and brighten shots. (The company did not respond to a request to elaborate on how the algorithms work.)

AI can make a difference in the image, but the end results for each of these features also depend on the phone’s lenses, said Gartner analyst Bill Ray. A traditional camera will have the lens several centimeters from the sensor, but the limited space on a phone often requires squeezing things together, which can result in a more shallow depth of field and reduced image quality, especially in darker environments.

“The quality of the lens is still a big deal, and how the phone addresses the lack of depth,” Ray said.

The next big thing

While night photography on phones has come a long way, a buzzy new technology could push it ahead even more.

Generative AI, the technology that powers the viral chatbot ChatGPT, has earned plenty of attention for its ability to create compelling essays and images in response to user prompts. But these AI systems, which are trained on vast troves of online data, also have potential to edit and process images.

“In recent years, generative AI models have also been used in photo-editing functions like background removal or replacement,” Su said. If this technology is added to smartphone photo systems, it could eventually make night modes even more powerful, Su said.

Big Tech companies, including Google, are already fully embracing this technology in other parts of their business. Meanwhile, smartphone chipset vendors like Qualcomm and MediaTek are looking to support more generative AI applications natively on consumer devices, Su said. These include image and video augmentation.

“But this is still about two to three years away from limited versions of this showing up on smartphones,” he said.

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